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Why in the East there will be neither peace nor war

Evaluating the text of the law on the one hand and prospects of its implementation on the other, it is necessary to be careful. As the proposal about a special status of the Donbass is a variant of gradual peaceful resolution of the conflict in the East. Though this variant is compromised and forced, but […]

Evaluating the text of the law on the one hand and prospects of its implementation on the other, it is necessary to be careful. As the proposal about a special status of the Donbass is a variant of gradual peaceful resolution of the conflict in the East. Though this variant is compromised and forced, but the most appropriated in this situation.

In searching answer to the question of what to do with the Donbass – the question that arose earlier and now emerging in connection with the law and negotiations in Minsk – it is necessary to understand that Ukraine is not facing a choice: to return the Donbass or to give it a special status. The returning of the Donbass under the full control of Kiev is possible only by military means. It would be feasible if the country fought exclusively with the separatists. But, as it has been shown by August events, it has to deal with the Russian troops. In such confrontation Ukraine can rely only on fighting draw, at the inevitable big victims. Therefore, theoretically, there is a variant of a full returning the Donbass, but to implement it in the near future won’t be possible. In addition, there is a risk of a large-scale war between the two countries.

ukrainian troops

The second variant is to attempt to resolve the situation peacefully. It is naturally, that this approach will cause criticism and discontent, because Kiev will have to negotiate with the separatists. There is a dilemma: if the Ukrainians like neither war, nor special status, then what is the alternative? It is only the freezing of the conflict. Actually, there will be a choice from two variants; each of them will have its own army of opponents. First, the denial from occupied part of the Donbass – but in this case the risk of escalation of the conflict remains. The second, try step by step bring the region under the Ukrainian control – the same compromise, in which Ukraine formally retains the Donbass in the composition of the country, trying by means of re-elections of local authorities and transitional institutions return it within the legal framework of the state. In addition, the relative peace is retains around the whole territory.

Another thing is that there are a number of inconsistent contradictory moments in granting special status to the Donbass. For example, Ukraine is ready to pay pensions and fulfill fiscal obligations. But if all taxes and dues remain on the territory of the region – and the separatists want this – they should take responsibility all financial obligations, including the payment of pensions. In this case, Ukraine shouldn’t provide any subsidies and aid, except international.

Onwards is the issue of law enforcement. What will be a people’s police, referred to in the law? Probably, these are policemen who didn’t tamper in conflict with the separatists and are ready to pledge any government, if only to maintain their status. From here goes another contradiction. Ukraine stands for the fact that the Security Service of Ukraine, under Kiev’s control, acts on the region territory. But the separatists are against it. Ukraine wants to control the border, the separatists are against.

That is, there are more uncovered questions than those on which managed to pre-negotiate with the Russians. By the way, herein is another problem. The negotiations are conducted with Russia, while the separatists dare themselves to declare that they are not satisfied. Although the Minsk Protocol was signed, including the representatives of both the so-called people’s republics. That is, the headship of the self-appointed DPR and LPR has taken responsibility, and now they shrug shoulders, saying that they are not a part of negotiations and plans to maintain the status of the republics. In this case, of course, there will be neither people’s police, nor financing in the occupied territories. And there will be no recognition of this part of the Donbass as the territory of Ukraine.

Unfortunately, this duality will continue in the future. I’m a skeptic, so I think that to reach a compromise regarding the special status to the Donbass will be very difficult, even impossible. And in this case, the second variant will come into force, the same alternative – the freezing of the conflict. Between Ukrainian and Russian troops will appear discretionary area, where will be no war, no peace.

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